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Politics

Mostly settled. The money is here but the doubt mostly is not.

as of 2026-08-25 23:27 UTC·gamma-api

Conviction spread

$13.3M / 24h
6,693 open markets · 1,000 events
0c25c50c75c100c
contested 2.4%settled 72.8%priced 6,693

Still a coin flip · 45c to 55c, over $1k today

54cWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$61k
48cWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$16k
52cUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$14k
48c2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$10k
47cWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$9k
50cNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$7k
53cRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?$6k
54cWill Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?$6k
48cWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?$5k
52cTrump meets with Putin by December 31?$5k
48cWill Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?$5k
55cIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?$5k
55cWill Princess Faku be the next mayor of Buffalo City?$3k
50cWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$3k

Biggest 24h moves

-24cWill Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$451k
+24cWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$401k
-22cWill Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?$6k
-21cWill Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?$6k
-15cWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?$32k
+14cWill Darline Graham Nordone win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?$8k
+13cUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$59k
+13cWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?$22k
-13cWill Roseana Sarney win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?$5k
+11cUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$342k
+11cWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?$17k
+11cWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?$49k
-11cWill Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in August 2026?$6k
+9cUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?$245k

Most money today

Fed Decision in September?$1.7M
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$1.3M
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$1.0M
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner$889k
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?$875k
Brazil Presidential Election$612k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$493k
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028$427k
Elon Musk # tweets August 21 - August 28, 2026?$372k
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028$347k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$324k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$296k
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?$228k
Elon Musk # tweets August 24 - August 26, 2026?$225k
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